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Polarlicht Information - Entstehung und Vorhersage von Polarlicht ber Deutschland
Aurora Alarm


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Vorhersage

Entstehung von Polarlicht über Deutschland:Daten, Vorhersage, Bilder von Polarlichtern, Hintergrundinformationen über Polarlicht (aurora boralis)Die Entstehung von Polarlicht


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Mehr Astro-Seiten:
Listinus Toplisten

Sonnenaktivit�:

Erdmagnetfeld:
Quelle: NOAA

K-Index der SAMs:

Suchen nach:
In Partnerschaft mit Amazon.de

Grundsätzlich ist eine längerfristige und punktgenaue Vorhersage von Polarlichtern nicht möglich (siehe Entstehung).

Ein erstes Anzeichen für eine bevorstehende erhöhte Polarlichtwahrscheinlichkeit ist ein coronaler Massenauswurf auf der Sonne (CME). Eine Informationsquelle über ein solches Ereignis stellt der Satellit SOHO (Solar & Heliospheric Observatory) dar, der aktuelle Bilder der Sonne liefert (Thumbnails finden Sie hier). Die folgende Bildersequenz zeigt  einen solchen (leider nicht erdgerichteten) Massenauswurf am 5./6. August 1999, aufgenommen vom SOHO-Instrument LASCO C3 (Der weisse Kreis im Zentrum markiert den Umriss der Sonne):


Quelle: SOHO (ESA & NASA) 

 

aktuelles LASCO C2 Bild

aktuelles LASCO C3 Bild

Animation

Animation

Wie ein erdgerichteter Massenauswurf auf den SOHO-Instrumenten erscheint, ist hier am animierten Beispiel vom 28.10.2003 zu sehen.

Informationen über die Ankunft eines grösseren CME und dessen erwartete Auswirkungen erhält man über die CME-Infoseite des STD (Solar Terrestrial Dispatch). Dort ist auch die Ausrichtung des derzeitigen IMF vermerkt. Je mehr das IMF südwärts ausgerichtet ist, desto eher ist mit Polarlicht zu rechnen.

Ausreichend hohe Sonnenwindgeschwindigkeit und Teilchendichte können jedoch durch den alleinigen Druck auf die Magnetosphäre der Erde ein südwärts gerichtetes IMF entbehrlich machen.

Dies sind die wichtigsten Indikatoren für eine mittelfristige Vorhersage im Bereich von mehreren Stunden.

Erreicht die Schockfront des Massenauswurfs das Erdmagnetfeld und die Atmosphäre, geben die Sichtbarkeitsovale Auskunft über die eingebrachte Energie.

Die aktuellen und vorhergesagten KP-Werte sind ein Massstab für die Schwere des derzeit stattfindenden Magnetsturms und die Wahrscheinlichkeit von Polarlichterscheinungen.

Magnetometer messen die momentane Abweichung des Erdmagnetfeldes. Die Ausschläge finden fast zeitgleich mit den Polarlichterscheinungen statt.

 
| R. Pitscheneder | SAM-Alarm Benutzer: Teilnehmer am SAM-Alarm| Aktuelle Zeit: 16:21:27 Uhr | |

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